UK Growth Stalls - Again!

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UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:18 am

Downgraded: UK Growth 'Stalls Over Eurozone'
10:57am UK, Monday October 17, 2011

The UK economy has stalled due to fears over the eurozone debt crisis, a leading forecaster warned as it downgraded its GDP growth forecast.
Ernst & Young's Item Club has revised its predictions to 0.9% this year and 1.5% in 2012, from 1.4% and 2.2% respectively last July.

The group's latest quarterly forecast blames the fall on uncertainty across the eurozone and a slowing world economy.

It says this is undermining business confidence and investment decisions - but goes on to predict growth in the eurozone of 1.6% this year and UK growth of 2.5% in 2013.


With the UK recovery grinding to a halt, new measures are now needed to help stimulate growth

The report also says the Bank of England's injection of an additional £75bn of quantitative easing is unlikely to put the recovery back on track.

Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Item Club, said: "It's worse than we thought.

"The bright spots in our forecast three months ago - business investment and exports - have dimmed to a flicker as uncertainty around Greece and the stability of the eurozone increases.

"With the UK recovery grinding to a halt, new measures are now needed to help stimulate growth.

"We think there is scope for targeted tax reliefs and spending measures to help put us back on track.

"In the meantime, businesses need to be much more aware of the economic risks and have contingency plans in place given the current volatility."

According to the report, business investment will be flat this year and exports will increase by just 6%, much less than was expected three months ago.

And another gloomy forecast came in the form of the Item Club's projected UK unemployment rate, which it said would increase to 2.7m by the spring of 2013.

Mr Spencer said the Government should cut employers' National Insurance contributions in a bid to boost the job market.

"With the public sector cuts starting to feed through in the UK, it's vital that the private sector labour market continues to stay afloat," he added.
http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16090486


Deeper and deeper, its a real mess!

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:15 am

That's what happens with a typical tory govornment!

It is rather amusing to see no respondants who advocate this current govornment?

: D "it is the EUs fault, what we inherited, bla, bla, bla"

: ( where are they? : D

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:30 pm

I do beleive art that it was gordon who spent all the money his Cheif Scretary to the Treasury said so. I do belive Arty that Gordon never saved a penny for rainy days.

I also know he sold our gold reserves when he didn't need to at a rock bottom price.

I also know that he grew the Public sector by 1 Million staff which is unsustainable.

I also know that there is a world recession. This has sweet FA to do with the coalition and everything to do with a deficit of £500 million perday left by Gordon.

The cheek of you lefties never fails to amaze me.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:46 pm

The leftie Traitors will be hoping for Britain to fail so they can set up a USSR type repressive government. That's what they dream about. From some of the left wing posts it is obvious that the communism is being sadly missed.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:56 pm

fred bloggs wrote:The leftie Traitors will be hoping for Britain to fail so they can set up a USSR type repressive government. That's what they dream about. From some of the left wing posts it is obvious that the communism is being sadly missed.

The EU is 3/4s of the way there there Fred. Guess what the left wing bloggers on here love the EU and are happy with the fact that they haven't had a say.

They cry out against the Tories but go silent when the EU lefty commisars do as they like. It's called selective abhorrence. If the Tories do something they complain if the EU were to do the exact same thing they would say how good.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:39 pm

This government is helping Britain fail. We need to pay back the debt, but at the rate they are doing it they are causing huge amounts of unemployment, meaning more benefits being paid with less tax coming in. You can't spend your way out of debt, but you cannot do the opposite either. A sensible government would have taken both things into account. They think this recession might last five years. If they carry on the way they are going I'd be quite surprised to see it end then. They do not seem to have any plan to energise the country, and every scheme than works they knock the legs out from under it, as in the rising solar panel industry, as Seren put in the Environment section.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:17 pm

Suspect

I think it depends on how you spend your way out of recession. I believe working for a living should be rewarded. Lower taxes, more money in the pocket of those working will mean they spend more... it will have a positive knock on effect.



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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:29 pm

Angel wrote: Suspect

I think it depends on how you spend your way out of recession. I believe working for a living should be rewarded. Lower taxes, more money in the pocket of those working will mean they spend more... it will have a positive knock on effect.



Exactly Angel, a balance. If you take the country down and tax the poorest the worst, as there are more poor or low middle than there are rich, you have a large percentage of the population that cannot spend. This drives the economy down further and the spiral disappears down the plughole.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:52 pm

I don't know how many tax payers there are, but I bet I wouldn't be far wrong with a figure of about 30%.

They're the ones funding everything...it can't go on unless that 30% are rewarded for what they are doing for the Country. There has to be incentives to keep those people employed.


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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:16 pm

Angel wrote:I don't know how many tax payers there are, but I bet I wouldn't be far wrong with a figure of about 30%.

They're the ones funding everything...it can't go on unless that 30% are rewarded for what they are doing for the Country. There has to be incentives to keep those people employed.


These were the latest figures I could find on a quick search Angel:

Of a UK adult population of around 50 million, it is estimated that there
will be 30.6 million taxpayers in 2008–09. Around 3.6 million of these will
pay tax at the higher rate, providing 55.8% of total revenue.

http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn09.pdf

Bit out of date I'm afraid, and shows 26.4 million are on the lower tax band, but still having to pay VAT and all the tax petrol brings in. Granted the higher band bring in more income tax, but they don't pay any more VAT and petrol, and I expect when that is taken into account, the figure is about even. 26.4 million people are going to pay a lot more petrol tax than 3.6 million.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:33 pm

There are 8000 taxpayers who pay as much as millions of lower rate taxpayers in this country.

Just how much money do you think we should borrow more Sassy. Obviously you think £500 million is too low.

Let me point out something before you answer. If we hadn't got the nprogramme of reduction in place instead of paying ultra low rates we would be paying 6% like Italy. 6% of 3 Trillion is as much as we spend on the NHS.

Labour got us into a mess by bloating the public sector you want to keep it bloated by taxing the productive sector to death and leaving more debts for our children. Thanks alot!

As Angel said why not let people keep some of the money they earn and spend it for themselves. We don't need centralist soviet style politicians spending it for us.

Seren showed us the govt take is 63% already. JUst how much should we give is my second question and still be a free economy.



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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 8:39 pm

My point is Drinky, that if we pay the money back too quickly, the cost of doing so, in lost jobs, civil unrest etc, might actually mean that we go down the plughole and don't manage to pay it back at all. Paying back debt has to be done realistically, with a plan that can continue and be sustained. That not only applies to individual debt, but government debt as well. If you bring the county to its knees and have huge unemployment, the debt will never be repayed and we will not longer have an economy worth talking about.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:18 pm

There are jobs and none jobs Sassy. For example I don't think some of the crazy diversity posts add anything but cost. In Manchester front linme carer jobs are being sacrificed whilst diversity jobs at much higher rates of pay are kept.

JObs in the public sector carry a 30% premium if pensions are factored in. Keeping the publkic sector bloated suckes the lifeblood from the productive sector. It is a vicious spiral downwards the law of dimin ishing returns.
I do accept there are some infreastructure projects that would create good jobs buit keeping bean counters in the NHS diversity officers etc is just cost.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Mon Nov 07, 2011 9:53 pm

H20 wrote:There are jobs and none jobs Sassy. For example I don't think some of the crazy diversity posts add anything but cost. In Manchester front linme carer jobs are being sacrificed whilst diversity jobs at much higher rates of pay are kept.

JObs in the public sector carry a 30% premium if pensions are factored in. Keeping the publkic sector bloated suckes the lifeblood from the productive sector. It is a vicious spiral downwards the law of dimin ishing returns.
I do accept there are some infreastructure projects that would create good jobs buit keeping bean counters in the NHS diversity officers etc is just cost.

Of course I don't agree with diversity jobs staying and carers going, who would? But:

UK unemployment rose by 114,000 between June and August to 2.57 million - a 17-year high, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the unemployment rate also increased to 8.1%.

The unemployment total for 16-24 year olds hit a record high of 991,000 in the quarter, a jobless rate of 21.3%.

The claimant count, the number of people out of work and claiming benefits, rose 17,500 to 1.6 million in September


Thats 114,000 more people NOT paying tax between June and August
17,500 more that we are paying benefits for in September
Nearly A MILLION kids without work or hope.

Thats real madness.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:13 am

That is as usual partiallly true. Public sector workers pay taxe yes but their whole salary is paid from private sector workers taxes.

The public sector doesn't make money itself. If a public servant is on say £30,000 salary there pension costs would take that to nearer £40,000. They then have to be provided with offices expenses etc etc.

If they are doing a none job and the list is endless of non jobs that is pure cost. There is no benefit to society. Therefore the govt can reduce the payroll going foprward and the deficit. The costs of dole tempararily will offset some savings but to the tune of their salary plus pensions office space etc? I don't think so.

Finally in this virtuos circle with a reduced burden oin the productive private sector they can afford to take on staff.

Your way is to keep them in non jobs sucking the life out of industry which is producing something. Yours is a vicious downward spiral mine atempory pain followede by real growth. You do not get growth by creating public sector jobs that should be obvious to anyone. That's the lie that Labour is trying to sell and so it seems are you.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:44 am

H20 wrote:That is as usual partiallly true. Public sector workers pay taxe yes but their whole salary is paid from private sector workers taxes.

The public sector doesn't make money itself. If a public servant is on say £30,000 salary there pension costs would take that to nearer £40,000. They then have to be provided with offices expenses etc etc.

If they are doing a none job and the list is endless of non jobs that is pure cost. There is no benefit to society. Therefore the govt can reduce the payroll going foprward and the deficit. The costs of dole tempararily will offset some savings but to the tune of their salary plus pensions office space etc? I don't think so.

Finally in this virtuos circle with a reduced burden oin the productive private sector they can afford to take on staff.

Your way is to keep them in non jobs sucking the life out of industry which is producing something. Yours is a vicious downward spiral mine atempory pain followede by real growth. You do not get growth by creating public sector jobs that should be obvious to anyone. That's the lie that Labour is trying to sell and so it seems are you.

So where is your proof that all those put out of work were in non-jobs. Loads of people from the private sector are being made redundant, and some of those because they no longer have work that the public sector generated. Its very easy to say they were in non-jobs, but I would like to see the proof. Its one of those blithe generalisations that conservatives are apt to come out with, but when you pin them down, they have no proof.

Councils all over the country are cutting ESSENTIAL services, not little men sitting at desks, but carers etc. A high proportion of the jobs gained are part-time, and as full time is considered anything over 16 hours a week, the people who have had to take the part time jobs might technically be in work, but in practise are still having to claim benefits.

Many private companies are struggling, because the work they got was from the public sector, off the top of my head the RM Group who set up and maintain the IT for schools lost a huge contract.

This government is driving the economy down, once it reaches a certain level, the chances of it coming back up diminish considerably.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:30 pm

From my experience I think the private sector are through the worst of it so far, and bar another major crash (I'm looking at greece here) the growth within the UK should begin to rise again soon.

The company I work for laid off 4 people at the height of the crunch (probably as an excuse to be fair) but have hired 25 people since the start of the year. Our main customers in the UK are in the public sector but our main growth is based on private customers in the EU.

The cuts announced last year are only really hitting the public sector now in terms of job cuts. Some are automatically cutting jobs to save money but others are being imaginative, I know of one department in a hospital in the UK, which has made a 110% cut to its budget (roughly £4mil) by offering a service to international clients for a price. They have hired more staff are doing what they would be doing anyway and making a profit.

It was brave but it's about time more pubic sector departments did this.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:51 pm

I'm the king wrote:From my experience I think the private sector are through the worst of it so far, and bar another major crash (I'm looking at greece here) the growth within the UK should begin to rise again soon.

The company I work for laid off 4 people at the height of the crunch (probably as an excuse to be fair) but have hired 25 people since the start of the year. Our main customers in the UK are in the public sector but our main growth is based on private customers in the EU.

The cuts announced last year are only really hitting the public sector now in terms of job cuts. Some are automatically cutting jobs to save money but others are being imaginative, I know of one department in a hospital in the UK, which has made a 110% cut to its budget (roughly £4mil) by offering a service to international clients for a price. They have hired more staff are doing what they would be doing anyway and making a profit.

It was brave but it's about time more pubic sector departments did this.



The Trade unions may put paid to that. The leadership are very much the old style leaders we had in the 70s. It isn't about workers rights with them it's power and politics. When I was younger and naive I worked as a TU rep for NALGO. I even went to conferences. A bigger bunch of card carrying Communist you would never find. At the youth conference in Blackpool there were only two Tories out os a contingent of hundreds. We both wore Monday club badges and were booed throughout our brief speeches.



The motions were all to do with stuff unrelated to work. It was Eddie Saah(Newspaper guy), CND, friends of the Soviets you name it. It was great fun though standing up to the left. We RWs were so out numbered, like here really.lol!



The leaders have already showed their colours in the recent pensions arguments. IMO the offers are too generous despite which they have still said NO. They want a Labour govt that will dance to their tune end of.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 1:43 pm

H20 wrote:



The Trade unions may put paid to that. The leadership are very much the old style leaders we had in the 70s. It isn't about workers rights with them it's power and politics. When I was younger and naive I worked as a TU rep for NALGO. I even went to conferences. A bigger bunch of card carrying Communist you would never find. At the youth conference in Blackpool there were only two Tories out os a contingent of hundreds. We both wore Monday club badges and were booed throughout our brief speeches.



The motions were all to do with stuff unrelated to work. It was Eddie Saah(Newspaper guy), CND, friends of the Soviets you name it. It was great fun though standing up to the left. We RWs were so out numbered, like here really.lol!



The leaders have already showed their colours in the recent pensions arguments. IMO the offers are too generous despite which they have still said NO. They want a Labour govt that will dance to their tune end of.

Can the Unions get anyone to dance to their tune anymore? Thought Thatcher legislated them into submission?

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 2:19 pm

Nems Again wrote:

Can the Unions get anyone to dance to their tune anymore? Thought Thatcher legislated them into submission?

She did. To think that the unions hold any power at the moment is sheer paranioa.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:58 pm

Unions do hold power, just ask Qantas, BA etc.

They can they can hold a company owner/government over a barrel very easily.

Their power is less which isn't a bad thing, but they still hold a lot of power.

I have a quick question about ballots on strikes, is it fair that unions holding these ballots, also try to tell the members how they should vote? My GF had the ballot paper through from a teaching union the other day and on the same day, there was 5 seperate mailings from them on why she should vote yes.

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:59 pm

I'm the king wrote:Unions do hold power, just ask Qantas, BA etc.

They can they can hold a company owner/government over a barrel very easily.

Their power is less which isn't a bad thing, but they still hold a lot of power.

I have a quick question about ballots on strikes, is it fair that unions holding these ballots, also try to tell the members how they should vote? My GF had the ballot paper through from a teaching union the other day and on the same day, there was 5 seperate mailings from them on why she should vote yes.

Broadly similar to the politicians being told how to vote or they will have the whip withdrawn?

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:22 pm

Nems Again wrote:

Broadly similar to the politicians being told how to vote or they will have the whip withdrawn?

Similar yes, but in my opinion, neither is right.

It's the same when there is a referendum, every party tries to make you vote a certain way, what is wrong with stating the facts and letting people decide?

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:24 pm

I'm the king wrote:

Similar yes, but in my opinion, neither is right.

It's the same when there is a referendum, every party tries to make you vote a certain way, what is wrong with stating the facts and letting people decide?

And they talk about my rose coloured specs IAK! It will never happen, that would be letting people decide for themselves!

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Re: UK Growth Stalls - Again!

Post by Guest on Tue Nov 08, 2011 4:26 pm

I'm the king wrote:

Similar yes, but in my opinion, neither is right.

It's the same when there is a referendum, every party tries to make you vote a certain way, what is wrong with stating the facts and letting people decide?
I agree neither is right and as for letting people decide for themselves, politicians dont think people have the sense to decide for themselves

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